Indian Politics has traveled a long way from monopoly of Congress to coalition era. Initially coalition era was most difficult phase with hung assemblies, parliament multiple governments in short span of time, and mid term elections. In last one decade barring some exceptions there has been decisive mandates in favor of one party of pre-poll alliances. It is sign of maturing coalition politics. It has given stable governments.
2014 general election has been another milestone in Indian politics. It made difference on two counts. First it was quasi-presidential in nature. People gave decisive mandate for Mr. Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of BJP. Secondly it marked transition from coalition politics to "anti-establishmentism", with later being more important and long lasting impact. Bihar assembly election 2015 marking the first major victory of anti-establishmentism.
India has parliamentary system with first pass the pole method. Although BJP got around 33% of popular votes, it secured more than 50% of seats in Loksabha. In Loksabha 2014, opposition was largely fragmented. Vote share of unified opposition was much more than vote share of BJP. This prompted opposition parties to come together and fight BJP and Modi charisma. India has lack of ideology based party system. Therefore coming together of these parties is not difficult. Only obstacle has been personal rivalry. Since there are no permanent friends and foes in politics, this issue has been relatively easier to address. Unified opposition was first tried in assembly by-elections explicitly in Bihar, implicitly in UP. Further Delhi election where it was implicit understanding between cadres of Congress and AAP that gave excellent results. Bihar election was first major test of unified opposition. Final tally of assembly election results were in tune with seat projections based upon vote shares of grand alliance in general election 2014.
However such unified opposition has inherent weaknesses and contradictions. It is prompted by opportunism rather than ideology. Its disintegration is inevitable. After success in Bihar there would be more consolidated experiment in UP. Electoral politics has become simple arithmetic.
Strategies employed by unified opposition is anti-establishmentism, that is to oppose party in power and blame it for every wrong. In Delhi and in Bihar all problems of the country were attributed to newly elected government at centre. Modi government has been on right track to focus on institutional. infrastructural reforms. Such measures take time to yield results. In Delhi and Bihar actual anti-incumbency was directed towards BJP.
Bihar elections also signifies caste based voting pattern. It is unfortunate that caste based political discourse is still rampant. Vote share of two alliances are in consonance with caste based vote bank of respective parties.
Bihar election, though regional in nature has national percussion. Unfortunately these results will dampen the long term economic reforms being undertaken. Firstly it will decrease the stature of PM Modi in parliament and within his own party. BJP's strength in RS will be further reduced. Reforms with legislative requirements will be difficult to go through. Further Mr Modi may shift focus from reforms to short term populist measures. populist measures, though bad economics yield good electoral results. Further investor confidence will suffer setback in light of dampening reforms.
It will require statesmanship from Mr Modi to continue with long term reforms irrespective of regional losses. In my opinion he is staunch patriot and he will continue with reforms with more focus on long term gains rather than short sighted populism. He has to sacrifice states to earn Statesmanship.
2014 general election has been another milestone in Indian politics. It made difference on two counts. First it was quasi-presidential in nature. People gave decisive mandate for Mr. Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of BJP. Secondly it marked transition from coalition politics to "anti-establishmentism", with later being more important and long lasting impact. Bihar assembly election 2015 marking the first major victory of anti-establishmentism.
India has parliamentary system with first pass the pole method. Although BJP got around 33% of popular votes, it secured more than 50% of seats in Loksabha. In Loksabha 2014, opposition was largely fragmented. Vote share of unified opposition was much more than vote share of BJP. This prompted opposition parties to come together and fight BJP and Modi charisma. India has lack of ideology based party system. Therefore coming together of these parties is not difficult. Only obstacle has been personal rivalry. Since there are no permanent friends and foes in politics, this issue has been relatively easier to address. Unified opposition was first tried in assembly by-elections explicitly in Bihar, implicitly in UP. Further Delhi election where it was implicit understanding between cadres of Congress and AAP that gave excellent results. Bihar election was first major test of unified opposition. Final tally of assembly election results were in tune with seat projections based upon vote shares of grand alliance in general election 2014.
However such unified opposition has inherent weaknesses and contradictions. It is prompted by opportunism rather than ideology. Its disintegration is inevitable. After success in Bihar there would be more consolidated experiment in UP. Electoral politics has become simple arithmetic.
Strategies employed by unified opposition is anti-establishmentism, that is to oppose party in power and blame it for every wrong. In Delhi and in Bihar all problems of the country were attributed to newly elected government at centre. Modi government has been on right track to focus on institutional. infrastructural reforms. Such measures take time to yield results. In Delhi and Bihar actual anti-incumbency was directed towards BJP.
Bihar elections also signifies caste based voting pattern. It is unfortunate that caste based political discourse is still rampant. Vote share of two alliances are in consonance with caste based vote bank of respective parties.
Bihar election, though regional in nature has national percussion. Unfortunately these results will dampen the long term economic reforms being undertaken. Firstly it will decrease the stature of PM Modi in parliament and within his own party. BJP's strength in RS will be further reduced. Reforms with legislative requirements will be difficult to go through. Further Mr Modi may shift focus from reforms to short term populist measures. populist measures, though bad economics yield good electoral results. Further investor confidence will suffer setback in light of dampening reforms.
It will require statesmanship from Mr Modi to continue with long term reforms irrespective of regional losses. In my opinion he is staunch patriot and he will continue with reforms with more focus on long term gains rather than short sighted populism. He has to sacrifice states to earn Statesmanship.
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