Delhi assembly election results have surprised everyone within political spheres and outside as well. National and international media attention has been disproportionate to the de facto political importance of Delhi. Delhi assembly is nothing more than glorified municipality citing geography and demography. Unprecedented mandate given in favour of AAP can best be described as euphoria for utopia. Despite not having much influence on national politics in theory, Delhi results may have serious percussions on Indian politics eventually.
It is easier to label any strategy as poor after retrospective analysis in light of results. Nonetheless such retrospective introspections help to evolve. Loss of BJP can be attributed to multiple factors important ones being negative campaigning by opposition, de facto United opposition, practically defunct Delhi state BJP unit, impatience of voters and lack of understanding of governance.
Central government should have conducted Delhi elections immediately after LS victory. Elections in june-july would have helped BJP in two ways. First they would have escaped from anti-incumbency of 9 months and secondly AAP would not have got opportunity to regroup. AAP has successfully projected itself as anti-establishment party. Right from day one they started maligning BJP and central government especially on unsubstantiated claims of horse-trading, unfairly targeting central government for steep rise in food inflation in july-Aug 2013 when it was barely 2 months in the office, on e-rickshaw issue etc. Rudimentary BJP delhi unit helped AAP with no leader having clean image and credibility. AAP campaign was centred around damaging reputation of BJP and government at centre at any cost be it with help of misinformation, lies or distorted facts be it inflation, issue of Delhi BJP chief's conflict of interest etc. A complete book can be written detailing lies and misinformation spread by AAP in last 9 months.
Congress after decimation in LS elections and 4 state elections thereafter was well aware about their prospects in Delhi elections. Strategy of unified opposition had worked well in Bihar and UP assembly by-polls. It was well evident that only unified opposition can tackle charisma of Modi. Any explicit tie up between AAP and Congress might have won delhi but definitely lost elsewhere. Therefore congress helped implicitly AAP by lacklustre campaign in Delhi. It would not be useless to talk about explicit support by other parties here because although there is no presence of these parties at macro level but there is certain fixed vote bank of these parties at ground level. Thus centralisation of anti-BJP vote is one of the major factor behind defeat BJP. BJP has gained in terms of absolute votes and lost marginally vote share but grievously lost seats.
Delhi BJP unit has been marred with infighting, lack of credible leader and good communicator. On the one hand volunteers of AAP had started door to door campaign as early as September, delhi BJP couldn't match their intensity even after election dates were announced. Lack of credible leader forced BJP to adopt Kiran Bedi in 11th hour as CM candidate. Kiran Bedi is proved excellent administrator. Her entry in BJP decimated personal ambitions of many local BJP leaders. Her loss from safest seat proves the point that she was defeated by BJP. This is not good sign for organisational discipline of BJP. Practically there was no coordination between central and state units of BJP with state unit not only remaining uncooperative, it negatively campaigned as well. No election can be won without cooperation from ground level cadre. AAP succeeded in labelling Mrs Bedi as opportunist, liar etc with little truth but BJP failed to communicate her as good administrator whichnis world known fact. Lack of communication from Mrs Bedi helped AAP to make perception that she will be Remote Control CM if she wins.
Only thing positive in AAP campaign was their manifesto. Detailed reasoned study of manifesto reveals that most of things promised are either poor economics, extreme socialism and out of jurisdiction of Delhi government. People believed AAP manifesto because they don't understand technicalities of governance and economics. Unfortunately we are still following imperial era educational system which was designed to make us literate not educated. It does not develop critical thinking. AAP exploited this ignorance of people. Conservative estimates suggest that execution of AAP manifesto will need around 4 lac crore Rs against budget of 40000 crore Rs. Some of the promises made like full statehood, restructuring DDA are not under jurisdiction of Delhi government. People are expecting subsidised electricity, free water etc. Freebies never come without cost. Untargeted subsidies are not only poor economics but are "reverse robinhood". AAP will blame central government for failure to fulfill promises made as anti-establishmentism is oxygen of this party.
Landslide victory for AAP should be warning sign for all political parties ajd nation. It shows impatience of voters. 9 months is too little time for reformative measures to yield visible results. Populism of UPA government had weaken fundamentals of economics. Thus it was imperative for new government to strengthen basics. Giving subsidy can yield result immediately butnit takes years to bridge demand supply. This was difference between 9 month and 49 days government. It would not be difficult to chose better ome fro two but impatience of voters has made them up myopic hedonists. It seems they want to enjoy immediately, compromising future without sacrifice. If any population choses freebies over reforms it deserves to be poor. Biggest example of socialism ruining state is that of WB where populism of left ruined the state. Such verdict will force other governments to be populist and which will weaken national economics.
Only good news for BJP is that ita vote bank has remained loyal. It means they still have faith in government. The onle lesson BJP should take from Delhi decimation is it should build disciplined selfless cadre with good dedication and communication skills.
