Odds of odd even

Finally Delhi government's much hyped odd even trial ended. Initially there were many hoardings, audio-video advertisements asking people to follow odd even and now there are big hoardings thanking people of Delhi for complying with the said program. The first beneficiary of this policy seems to be advertising industry. It is undoubted fact that Delhi is one of the most polluted city. Causes of such high level of pollution are complex ranging from climatic conditions to traffic congestion to industries. Traffic congestion in Delhi despite of world class metro services is due to lack of last mile connectivity, increasing proportion of upper middle class and consumerism. Odd even policy has been poorly thought without backing of scientific reasoning as far as pollution is concerned. If government is serious to tackle pollution then it should take steps to pull people towards public transport rather than pushing them into public transport. Let's analyse impact of odd even policy with respect to traffic congestion, public transport, politics and pollution.

It can not be denied and should not be denied that traffic congestion came down to some extent during first week of January 2016. Heavy penalty of 2000 Rs for violation has been responsible for this to significant extent. I have not seen any enthusiasm among car owners to follow this rule. However traffic congestion increased in the second week as people got settled with the policy by means of car exchange, getting CNG stickers and even number plate tampering can't be ruled out. This decrease in traffic congestion helped exempted categories like VIPs, CNG cars, single women drivers, bikers, commercial cars and people having two cars. Therefore this policy got thumbs up from certain sections of society who got benefit of the policy without sacrificing luxury.

Rush in metro trains was unprecedented especially in the first week. Supporters of this policy commented that rush is not alarming. Their definition of alarming isn't clear. It seems they are waiting for casualties to label it as alarming. Further there is need to find out impact of odd even policy on business of auto rickshaw and taxi industry. If people leave their petrol cars at home and travel in diesel run taxis then it will increase the pollution. Also personal cars undergo regular servicing and are less polluting than commercial vehicles.

Politics has been main beneficiary of odd even policy. Various campaigns especially TV add showing a person in muffler is blatant violation of SC guidelines. It shows self promoting attitude of Delhi government. Further during initial days of odd even media theatrics of going by bicycle, e-rickshaw was performed. If Delhi government is serious about leading by example then why don't its ministers, officers use these means throughout the year. Also false non-scientific data production claiming reduction in pollution has been cheap measure to mislead people. Also it has been equated with Swachch Bharat Abhiyan, forgetting that latter is concrete 5 year program including public participation, building toilets, solid waste management etc. Yeah in terms of money spent on odd even in 15 days it might exceed budget of SBA for 15 days for whole nation. Therefore odd even policy seems to be means to make political ends not to curb pollution.

Now coming to the most important aspect that is pollution. Data from Delhi pollution control committee suggests that there has been no significant effect on pollution during implementation period. Following is data of ambient air quality index comparing 13 day period of odd even and 13 days without odd even. Sundays being odd even free day have been included in non odd even days. Therefore based upon following data it can be concluded that there has been no reduction in pollution after odd even.

Date	PM 2.5	PM 10
1-Jan-16	600	976
2-Jan-16	397	566
4-Jan-16	613	978
5-Jan-16	331	707
6-Jan-16	370	890
7-Jan-16	550	1030
8-Jan-16	197	381
9-Jan-16	91	445
11-Jan-16	282	817
12-Jan-16	282	576
13-Jan-16	442	648
14-Jan-16	252	428
15-Jan-16	161	266
Average	351	669

  

Date	PM 2.5	PM 10
24-Dec-15	454	630
25-Dec-15	262	450
26-Dec-15	796	912
27-Dec-15	374	527
28-Dec-15	283	410
29-Dec-15	326	1019
30-Dec-15	351	874
31-Dec-15	450	627
3-Jan-16	230	807
10-Jan-16	236	615
16-Jan-16	218	427
17-Jan-16	321	541
18-Jan-16	302	588
Average	354	648

Now let's examine the consequences of odd even is made permanent. People who can afford will new cars. It won't be difficult for a Mercedes owner to buy another Honda City. People those who can not own new car will go for second hand cars which will definitely be more polluting than their new cars. Further those people not affording second hand cars will go for motorcycle and so on. Also there will be hoarding, black marketing and misuse of CNG stickers. In long terms this policy will increase number of vehicles not otherwise.

Now coming to constructive solutions to tackle the problem of traffic congestion and vehicular pollution. Strategy should be two pronged. First people should be pulled towards public transport by providing last mile connectivity. DTC bus routes should be improvised, frequency of metro trains. number of coaches should be increased. Auto-rickshaws should be governed in better way. It seems being a vote back auto drivers are protected by government and given a free hand to loot, and harass. traffic police should be proactive in curbing such loot. Further e-ricksaws should be promoted. E-Rickshaws have social, economic, and environmental benefits. Second prong of strategy should be to deter people from using personal cars by increasing parking charges, congestion charges. Also use of no-entries, one ways be made to tackle traffic congestion.

Also phased transition from BS-IV to BS-VI norms be made to reduce emission. CNG cars should be incentivised by provision of low parking charges, subsidy in taxes etc. All commercial taxis should mandatorily be converted into CNG cars. 

Environment is collective responsibility. It is unfortunate that pollution control has been reduced to theatrics and political gimmick. It takes away the seriousness of the issue. I hope that government will take a reasoned decision with respect to environmental pollution.